Ford raises low end of 2026 profit outlook to $10.5 billion after third-quarter beat

Ford Motor reported third-quarter results on Oct 28 that topped analyst estimates, and raised the low end of its 2026 profit outlook. Net income fell to $2.0 billion from $2.4 billion a year earlier, on revenue of $49.5 billion, down 2%.

Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT), the profit measure Ford's guidance is based on, rose to $2.7 billion from $2.6 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were 49 cents, against analyst estimates of about 40 cents. Chief Financial Officer Sherry House said it was the third time this year Ford has improved its full-year guidance.

The quarter by business

Revenue fell on the discontinuation of low-margin models such as the Escape crossover, conflict in the Middle East and higher steel and copper costs. Ford Pro's profit fell on Super Duty launch costs in Canada and higher commodity prices, and its margin narrowed to 9.4% from 11.4%. The company-wide adjusted EBIT margin was 5.4%, up from 5.1%, against a target of 8% by 2029.

Operating cash flow fell to $5.4 billion from $7.4 billion, while adjusted free cash flow rose to $4.7 billion from $4.3 billion. Ford ended the quarter with $25.3 billion in cash and $46.4 billion in liquidity.

Pickups and fuel prices

Ford's US sales fell 6.6% to 509,764 vehicles in the quarter as it phased out the Escape and the Lincoln Corsair, and F-Series sales fell 1.9%. Ford said F-Series had the highest retail share among full-line truck brands in the quarter.

House said Super Duty demand and orders have been resilient, while acknowledging some softening among retail buyers as fuel costs stay high.

Electric vehicles

The Model e unit lost $1.06 billion, compared with $1.41 billion a year earlier, on revenue of $1.2 billion, down 31%. Ford expects the unit's 2026 loss at the low end of its $4 billion to $4.5 billion range. Ford's US electric-vehicle sales fell 80% from a year earlier, following the expiry of the federal electric-vehicle tax credit.

The 2026 outlook

• Adjusted EBIT is now forecast at $10.5 billion to $11 billion, up from $10 billion to $11 billion.
• Adjusted free cash flow guidance stays at $6 billion to $7 billion, and capital spending at $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion.
• Ford Blue is now expected to earn about $5.5 billion, from a prior range of $5 billion to $5.5 billion.
• Ford Pro is expected at the low end of its $7 billion to $7.5 billion range.
• Ford expects commodity costs to rise by about $2.5 billion from 2025, up from $2 billion in its previous guidance.
• The guidance excludes a significant escalation of the Middle East conflict or a material downturn in the US economy.

2027

House said Ford expects 2027 profit roughly in line with 2026. She said commodity costs will keep rising into 2027, including memory chips made scarce by the AI boom, along with logistics costs driven by higher fuel prices.

F-150 production is scheduled for downtime in 2027 for a new generation of the truck, while the Oakville plant in Canada adds Super Duty output. Ford Energy, the company's stationary battery storage business, is due to launch in 2027.

Rivals and suppliers

Aluminum supplier Novelis, whose plant fires last fall caused a shortage that hit Ford, is back at full production, House said. Detroit rival General Motors has announced a move of its stock listing to the Nasdaq from the New York Stock Exchange; House said Ford has no plans to make such a change.

What comes next

• Ford's fourth-quarter dividend of 15 cents a share is payable on Dec 1 to shareholders of record on Nov 10.
• The Fathom, a midsize electric pickup starting at $30,000 and the first vehicle on Ford's Universal Electric Vehicle platform, is due to launch at Louisville Assembly Plant in Kentucky in the fourth quarter of 2027.
• Ford Energy aims to bring 20 gigawatt hours of annual battery capacity online by the end of 2027 and reach its full run rate by the third quarter of 2028.